Macro-econometric model of the Nigerian economy: a simulated analysis of oil shocks in a development context

Thesis/Dissertation · Sun Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1984

OSTI ID:5728395

Usip, E E.E.

The precarious position of Nigeria in being a one-resource (oil) based economy in terms of revenue generation has become a major cause of concern for the experts and political pundits. In this study, the author seeks to explore further the empirical basis for this concern in two stages. First, a macro-econometric model of Nigeria was constructed and evaluated. The model highlights the various channels through which the oil sector influences the rest of the economy. Economic theory, econometric techniques, existing fund of knowledge in the practice, computer simulation, and the institutional framework of Nigeria were brought to bear upon the modeling process. In the second stage, the resulting simulation model was used to examine the sensitivity of the economy to the leading sector (oil) as well as the growth potential of Nigeria up to 1986. The crucial question that was addressed is: will the oil sector be able to support a continuing economic growth of Nigeria in the absence of policy initiatives to diversify the revenue base of the economy. Although the empirical findings are hypothetical, they do have far-reaching implications for Nigeria's growth prospects and political stability.

• OSTI ID: 5728395
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700 -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
AFRICA
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMICS
INDUSTRY
NIGERIA
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
PETROLEUM INDUSTRY
SIMULATION