Determining system effectiveness against outsiders using ASSESS
- Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
The determination of security system effectiveness against outsider threats using the Analytic System and Software for Evaluation of Safeguards and Security (ASSESS) is discussed. The measure of system effectiveness is P(W), the probability of system win. This paper first discusses a general approach to calculating P(W) for a single adversary path using a path event timeline, depicting detection and delay, and results from the Neutralization module of ASSESS. The approach allows the analyst to take account of the interplay between delay and protective force-adversary engagements as well as serial engagements. In this paper an alternate method is presented for finding P(W) for the most vulnerable path, the path minimizing P(W) among all paths. This estimate of P(W) combines the probability of interruption, P(I), the output of the ASSESS Outsider Module, with the probability of neutralization, P(N), the output of the ASSESS Neutralization module. The method should produce less conservative estimates of P(W) than previous approaches.
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC04-76DP00789
- OSTI ID:
- 5718904
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-910774--
- Journal Information:
- Nuclear Materials Management. Annual Meeting Proceedings; (United States), Journal Name: Nuclear Materials Management. Annual Meeting Proceedings; (United States) Vol. 20; ISSN NUMMB; ISSN 0362-0034
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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