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Determining System Effectiveness Against Outsiders Using Assess

Conference ·
OSTI ID:5578405
 [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
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The determination of security system effectiveness against outsider threats using the Analytic System and Software for Evaluation of Safeguards and Security (ASSESS) is discussed. The measure of system effectiveness is P(W), the probability of system win. This paper first discusses a general approach to calculating P(W) for a single adversary path using a path event timeline, depicting detection and delay, and results from the Neutralization module of ASSESS. The approach allows the analyst to take account of the interplay between delay and protective force-adversary engagements as well as serial engagements. An alternate method is presented for finding P(W) for the most vulnerable path, the path minimizing P(W) among all paths. This estimate of P(W) combines the probability of interruption, P(I), the output of the ASSESS Outsider Module, with the probability of neutralization, P(N), the output of the ASSESS Neutralization module. The method should produce less conservative estimates of P(W) than previous approaches.

Research Organization:
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
DOE Contract Number:
AC04-76DP00789
OSTI ID:
5578405
Report Number(s):
SAND--91-0266C; CONF-910774--53; ON: DE91016130
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
990200 -- Mathematics & Computers
A CODES
ALARM SYSTEMS
COMPUTER CODES
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
COMPUTERS
CONTROL SYSTEMS
ENTRY CONTROL SYSTEMS
INTERCEPTION
INTRUSION DETECTION SYSTEMS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
PERFORMANCE TESTING
PROBABILITY
SABOTAGE
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SECURITY
SIMULATION
SURVEILLANCE
TESTING
US DOE
US ORGANIZATIONS