Demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis using the health and economic consequence model CRAC2
A demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis was performed for the reactor accident consequence model CRAC2 using techniques compiled as part of the NRC-sponsored MELCOR program. The principal objectives of the study were: (1) to demonstrate the use of the uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques; (2) to test the computer models that implement the techniques; (3) to identify possible difficulties in performing such an analysis; and (4) to explore alternative means of analyzing, displaying, and describing the results. Seventeen CRAC2 input variables thought to contribute significantly to uncertainty in estimated consequences were selected for analysis; subjective estimates of ranges, distributions, and correlations for these variables were made. Latin hypercube sampling, a modified Monte Carlo technique, was used to generate two multivariate samples of size 50 from the distributions assigned to the 17 input variables. A total of 100 CRAC2 runs, 50 for each sample, was performed. The results for the two samples were similar. A regression analysis was performed to estimate the contribution of each variable to uncertainty in estimated consequences. The study was first performed with the magnitude of the source term as one of the 17 variables. A second analysis was performed with a fixed source term. Only one sample of size 50 was generated in the second analysis. The uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques compiled for MELCOR appear well suited for use with a health and economic consequence model. Alternative methods for displaying and describing the results are presented. The insights gained from performing the analysis are reviewed and major conclusions summarized. A comparison of the results of this study with current point estimates of health and economic consequences is presented. 26 refs., 20 figs., 7 tabs.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC04-76DP00789
- OSTI ID:
- 5697449
- Report Number(s):
- NUREG/CR-4199; SAND-84-1824; ON: TI85014235
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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