Why OPEC's sheikhs shock no more

Journal Article · Mon Dec 26 04:00:00 EST 1983 · Fortune; (United States)

OSTI ID:5647965

Fraker, S

The author notes that the old cartel isn't what it used to be - pumping only 18 million barrels of oil a day, far below its 30 million bbl/day capacity. She cites figures from John H. Lichtblau, president of the New York's Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, who says the real, inflation-adjusted GNP of non-Communist nations could rise 3% a year during the 1980s and oil consumption would increase only about 1% a year. This means these countries would consume just under 49 million bbl/day in 1990 - 2 million less than in 1979. In the US, practically no increase in oil consumption is projected before the end of the century if GNP growth averages 2.5% a year. Even if GNP grew 5% a year, US consumption, now 15 million bbl/day, would increase at less than 2% annual rate. The ingenuity of people, through conservation, fuel switching, etc. and the effectiveness of market forces probably means that OPEC will not be able to raise prices in real terms until after the year 2000 - if then.

• OSTI ID: 5647965
• Journal Information: Fortune; (United States), Journal Name: Fortune; (United States) Vol. 108:13; ISSN FORTA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290100 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
DEMAND
DEMAND FACTORS
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY DEMAND
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NORTH AMERICA
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
OIL-IMPORTING COUNTRIES
OPEC
PRICES
USA