Report of the economic study panel of the inexhaustible resources study. Report No. CMU No. 1-53083

Technical Report · Thu Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 1977

OSTI ID:5646444

The date of commercial demand for inexhaustible resources (IER) technologies through 2050 is estimated by examining the supply and demand for energy. Energy demand is sensitive to the growth rate of GNP and to the rate at which energy prices increase. Constant energy prices combined with an annual growth in GNP of coal availability is of overwhelming importance in evaluating the window for IER. If coal availability is unlimited (because there are not problems with the environment or safety), the IER are never attractive. The size of the oil and gas resource base, and to a lesser extent the uranium and shale oil resource base, are important to planning the R and D and commercialization of the IER; thus, ways to promote exploration of the resource base ought to be explored. R and D on technologies that substitute other inputs for energy is of high value; the price of energy should reflect the total social cost of producing an additional Btu, as well as its scarcity value, if conservation is to work. Since there is little feedback from energy to GNP, goals regarding GNP growth are relatively independent of energy resources. The cost of electric IER is a crucial parameter, while the cost of nonelectric IER is less sensitive. Thus, a target date for commercialization of electric IER should be set no earlier than 2010, with substantial effort being devoted to research to make the technology cheaper and publicly acceptable. Non-electric IER should have at least as high a priority as electric IER, with most attention given to making it available as early as 1990. The cost of banning one of the IER technologies is relatively small, e.g., the breeder reactor, as long as a substitute IER technology is available.

• Research Organization: Carnegie-Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AS02-77ET20091
• OSTI ID: 5646444
• Report Number(s): DOE/ET/20091-1; ON: DE82007530
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290400 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Resources
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COMMERCIALIZATION
DEMAND
DEMAND FACTORS
ENERGY
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
EVALUATION
FUELS
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
PRICES
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
SYNTHETIC FUELS