Effects of parameter uncertainty on long-term simulations of lake alkalinity

Technical Report · Mon Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1990

OSTI ID:5615441

Lee, S; Georgakakos, K P; Schnoor, J L

A first-order second-moment uncertainty analysis has been applied to two lakes in the Adirondack Park, New York, to assess the long-term response of lakes to acid deposition. Uncertainty due to parameter error and initial condition error was considered. Because the enhanced trickle-down (ETD) model is calibrated with only 3 years of field data and is used to simulate a 50-year period, the uncertainty in the lake alkalinity prediction is relatively large. When a best estimate of parameter uncertainty is used, the annual average alkalinity is predicted to be -11 + or - 28 microeq/L for Lake Woods and 142 + or - 139 microeq/L for Lake Panther after 50 years. Hydrologic parameters and chemical weathering rate constants contributed most to the uncertainty of the simulations. Results indicate that the uncertainty in long-range predictions of lake alkalinity increased significantly over a 5- to 10-year period and then reached a steady state.

• Research Organization: Iowa Univ., Iowa City, IA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5615441
• Report Number(s): PB-91-182170/XAB
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT
010900 -- Coal
Lignite
& Peat-- Environmental Aspects
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540320* -- Environment
Aquatic-- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport-- (1990-)
ACID NEUTRALIZING CAPACITY
ACID RAIN
ACIDIFICATION
ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS
CHEMISTRY
DEPOSITION
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
FEDERAL REGION II
LAKES
NEW YORK
NORTH AMERICA
PH VALUE
POLLUTION
RAIN
SIMULATION
SURFACE WATERS
USA
WATER CHEMISTRY
WATER POLLUTION
WEATHERING