Natural gas supply through 1985

Technical Report · Mon Feb 01 04:00:00 EST 1982

OSTI ID:5599455

Thrasher, R

This report presents forecasts of natural gas production through the year 1985. A number of scenarios, including continuation of the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978 (NGPA), are examined. The forecasting methodology is also discussed. Under a continuation of the NGPA, marketed production of dry natural gas is projected to decline from 19.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 1980 to 18.1 Tcf in 1984. The production increase in 1979 following passage of the NGPA is attributed to increased access to, and utilization of, excess productive capacity in the intrastate market (the gas bubble). This occurrence is a one-time increase and not the start of a trend. The production forecast for natural gas has been adversely affected by the recent increases in oil prices. At an oil price of $15.00/Bbl, the 1984 production forecast would be 18.8 Tcf. The lower gas production forecast under current oil prices is due to increased competition for drilling rigs and other resources used for exploration for both oil and gas. If deregulation of natural gas prices occurs in 1982, production could be much higher, depending on the price obtained. At a constant price of $4.00/Mcf, annual production is forecast to hold fairly constant, at least through 1985, at about 19.1 Tcf. An important uncertainty in forecasting gas production concerns the finding rate, the ratio of gas reserve additions to exploratory drilling. for the years 1977 to 1979, the American Gas Association (AGA) reports 30 Tcf of nonassociated natural gas discoveries (new fields, new reservoirs, and extensions of old reservoirs), while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports 43 Tcf, which is about 40% more. Until this uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of current exploratory efforts is resolved, a wide range of gas supply forecasts must be considered reasonable.

• Research Organization: Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA). Energy Information Administration
• OSTI ID: 5599455
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0320; ON: DE82011935
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

03 NATURAL GAS
030600 -- Natural Gas-- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294003* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Natural Gas
DEREGULATION
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
EXPLORATION
FINANCIAL INCENTIVES
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
LAWS
NATIONAL ENERGY ACT
NATURAL GAS
NATURAL GAS POLICY ACT
PRICES
PRODUCTION
WELLHEAD PRICES