Model methodology and data description of the Production of Onshore Lower 48 Oil and Gas model

Technical Report · Thu Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 1988

OSTI ID:6789819

This report documents the methodology and data used in the Production of Onshore Lower 48 Oil and Gas (PROLOG) model. The model forecasts annual oil and natural gas production on a regional basis. Natural gas is modeled by gas category, generally conforming to categories defined by the Natural Gas Policy Act (NGPA) of 1978, as well as a category representing gas priced by way of a spot market (referred to as ''spot'' gas). A linear program is used to select developmental drilling activities for conventional oil and gas and exploratory drilling activities for deep gas on the basis of their economic merit, subject to constraints on available rotary rigs and constraints based on historical drilling patterns. Using exogenously specified price paths for oil and gas, net present values are computed for fixed amounts of drilling activity for oil and gas development and deep gas exploration in each of six onshore regions. Through maximizing total net present value, the linear program provides forecasts of drilling activities, reserve additions, and production. Oil and shallow gas exploratory drilling activities are forecast on the basis of econometrically derived equations, which are dependent on specified price paths for the two fuels. 10 refs., 3 figs., 10 tabs.

• Research Organization: USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC. Office of Oil and Gas
• OSTI ID: 6789819
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-M034; ON: DE89002113
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020300 -- Petroleum-- Drilling & Production
03 NATURAL GAS
030300* -- Natural Gas-- Drilling
Production
& Processing
ANNUAL VARIATIONS
COMPUTER CODES
DRILLING
FORECASTING
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
OILS
ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
OTHER ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
P CODES
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
PRODUCTION
VARIATIONS