Results of the Oak Ridge industrial model

Technical Report · Sat Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1983

OSTI ID:5561874

Reister, D B

The Oak Ridge Industrial Model (ORIM) was developed in 1979 for the Energy Information Administration (EIA). ORIM forecasts the demand for six major fuels by nine industrial sectors in ten regions of the US. Several major modifications to ORIM are described: (1) the solution period was changed from quinquennial to annual; (2) 1979 EIA data were used as the benchmark for the model; and (3) a lag was added to the fuel share function. After the modifications, the ORIM forecasts energy demand beginning in 1970. The price elasticity forecasts are reasonable. The ORIM backcast agrees well with historical data for electricity and coal. The results are not satisfactory for fuel oil; however, two independent data sources give quite different sets of values for the historical data. Before the model can be improved further, the data base must be improved.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76OR00033
• OSTI ID: 5561874
• Report Number(s): ORAU/IEA-83-10(M); ON: DE84004063
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320301* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Industrial & Agricultural Processes-- Energy Sources
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
COAL
DEMAND
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL CONSUMPTION
FUEL OILS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
INDUSTRY
LIQUID FUELS
MATERIALS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
OILS
ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
OTHER ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
POWER