Testing the hypothesis of TTBT (Threshold Test Ban Treaty) compliance, and magnitude-yield regression for explosions in granite. Final technical report, 15 November 1982-30 December 1984
Verification of the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) cannot be performed merely by estimating explosive yields on the basis of observed seismic magnitudes and concluding that a violation has occurred if one or more yield estimates exceed the TTBT limit of 150 kt. It is necessary to take into account the uncertainties in the seismic magnitudes, in the magnitude - yield relation, and especially in the magnitude bias between the test site at which the magnitude - yield calibration explosions were detonated and the test site of the explosions being monitored. For monitoring one explosion at a time, these uncertainties can be taken into account by placing confidence limits around the yield estimates. For verifying TTBT compliance of an ensemble of explosions considered as a whole, however, this technique cannot be used, since the confidence limits placed around the yield estimates of different explosions are correlated due to the use in every case of the same values of the parameters relating magnitude to yield. In order to examine TTBT compliance for groups of explosions, a test can be performed of the hypothesis that the yields have some fixed distribution in which all the values are less than 150 kt.
- Research Organization:
- Teledyne Geotech, Alexandria, VA (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 5560787
- Report Number(s):
- AD-A-151162/5/XAB; AL-84-7
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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