Limit on Saudi Arabia's oil pricing policy: a short-run econometric-simulation model

Thesis/Dissertation · Tue Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1985

OSTI ID:5516131

Bagour, O S.M.

Absence of a unified OPEC policy is largely attributed to frequent Saudi Arabian pricing/production decisions to influence oil price changes. Such demonstrated ability in the past prompted many to attribute oil price current downward rigidity to Saudi Arabian unwillingness to increase production. Empirically, this study presents a simultaneous equations oil market model in a simulation setting to test this hypothesis and to predict future oil prices under specific assumptions. Major conclusions are: (1) contrary to popular belief the international oil industry rarely, if ever, operated competitively; (2) the sole association of oil price increases to the embargo of 1973 is an outright distortion of facts; (3) the roots of the so-called energy crisis lie in: (a) post-World War II West European reconstruction, (b) US industrial adjustments from a war to a consumer-oriented economy, (c) the continuously dwindling oil reserves in major industrial countries, and (d) the comparative advantage of location and cost-per-unit of the Middle Eastern oil; (4) barring further market institutionalizations, a per barrel price below $15 by the end of 1990 (in constant 1984 prices) is not unlikely; and (5) future Saudi Arabian pricing/production policies to exert downward pressures on prices could lead to price increases, if perceived to be permanent by the OPEC group excluding Saudi Arabia.

• Research Organization: Michigan State Univ., East Lansing (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5516131
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
ASIA
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMICS
ENERGY POLICY
ENERGY SOURCES
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
MARKET
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
PETROLEUM
PRICES
PRODUCTION
SAUDI ARABIA
SIMULATION