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Kalman filtering applied to statistical forecasting

Journal Article · · Manage. Sci.; (United States)
The use of the Kalman Filter in a certain class of forecasting problems is described. The time series is assumed to be modeled as a time-varying mean with additive noise. The mean of the time series is assumed to be a linear combination of known functions. The coefficients appearing in the linear combination are unknown. Under such assumptions, the time series can be described as a linear system with the state vector of the system being the unknown parameters and present value of the mean of the process. The Kalman filter can be used under these circumstances to obtain an ''optimal'' estimate of the state vector. One of the distinct advantages of the Kalman filter is that time-varying coefficients can be permitted in the model. Examples using the Kalman filter in forecasting are presented.
OSTI ID:
5459200
Journal Information:
Manage. Sci.; (United States), Journal Name: Manage. Sci.; (United States) Vol. 23:7; ISSN MSCIA
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English