What has WOCOL done. [World coal study]
The energy forecasts of the World Coal Study (WOCOL) (See EAPA 6:4084) are based on the combined national projections of the Western countries plus South America rather than on a consensus view of global developments. Mr. Surrey feels that this approach leads to inconsistencies because there is no common framework of assumptions. He takes exception to WOCOL estimates that only 16% of recoverable coal reserves will be used up by the year 2000 based on an increase in worldwide coal trade and improvements in coal mining, transport, and combustion technologies. The assumption that international cooperation will solve some of the environmental problems, he argues, ignores past failures and political constraints. He thinks that Americans are more likely to concentrate on solving their own energy problems, which include uncertainties about the Western coal lands, transport needs, and future electric power demand. Surrey notes that political considerations in Western Europe raise further questions about the WOCOL forecasts. Finally, he observes that WOCOL's contribution may be limited to propagandizing the coal market and offering hope for an energy-rich future, but could end up in the frustration of unmet expectations if its assumptions prove unrealistic. 4 tables. (DCK)
- Research Organization:
- Sussex Univ., Brighton, England
- OSTI ID:
- 5422664
- Journal Information:
- Mines Mag.; (United States), Vol. 71:3
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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