Framework for analyzing safeguards alarms and response decisions

Conference · Fri Jun 11 04:00:00 EDT 1982

OSTI ID:5358985

Al-Ayat, R A; Judd, B R; McCord, R K

This paper describes a quantitative approach to help evaluate and respond to safeguards alarms. These alrms may be generated internally by a facility's safeguards systems or externally by individuals claiming to possess stolen Special Nuclear Material (SNM). This approach can be used to identify the most likely cause of an alarm - theft, hoax, or error - and to evaluate alternative responses to alarms. Possible responses include conducting investigations, initiating measures to recover stolen SNM, and replying to external threats. Based on the results of each alarm investigation step, the evaluation revises the likelihoods of possible causes of an alarm, and uses this information to determine the optimal sequence of further responses. The choice of an optimal sequence of responses takes into consideration the costs and benefits of successful thefts or hoaxes. These results provide an analytical basis for setting priorities and developing contingency plans for responding to safeguards alarms.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA); Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., Menlo Park, CA (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48
• OSTI ID: 5358985
• Report Number(s): UCRL-86215; CONF-820713-9; ON: DE82016784
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

055001* -- Nuclear Fuels-- Safeguards
Inspection
& Accountability-- Technical Aspects
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION
ADVERSARIES
ALARM SYSTEMS
DECISION MAKING
FUNCTIONS
MANAGEMENT
NUCLEAR MATERIALS MANAGEMENT
RESPONSE FUNCTIONS
SAFEGUARDS
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS