Analyzing safeguards alarms and response decisions

Technical Report · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1982

OSTI ID:5096135

Al-Ayat, R A; Judd, B R; McCord, R K

This report describes a quantitative model designed to help the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and its licensees evaluate and respond to alarms indicating that special nuclear material (SNM) may be missing. The model is called the Alarm/Response (A/R) Model. The report demonstrates three principal uses of the A/R Model. The first is determining the most likely cause of an alarm - theft, hoax, or error. The second is evaluating alternative responses to alarms. Possible responses include conducting investigations, initiating measures to recover stolen SNM, and replying to extortion threats from individuals claiming to possess SNM. For each possible alarm, the model identifies the best response, which can be used to develop contingency plans that the licensee and the NRC can carry out. The third use is to assist the NRC in setting performance standards, especially detection time requirements. In this application, the model helps to determine the value of more timely alarms produced by licensee safeguards systems. All three uses are demonstrated with hypothetical examples. A preliminary computer code produced sample results and determined the sensitivity of those results to subjective factors in the example.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA); Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., Menlo Park, CA (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48
• OSTI ID: 5096135
• Report Number(s): NUREG/CR-2404; UCRL-53034; ON: DE82020860
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

055001* -- Nuclear Fuels-- Safeguards
Inspection
& Accountability-- Technical Aspects
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION
ADVERSARIES
ALARM SYSTEMS
COMPUTER CODES
DECISION TREE ANALYSIS
DETECTION
FUNCTIONS
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
NUCLEAR MATERIALS DIVERSION
RESPONSE FUNCTIONS
SAFEGUARDS
THEFT
US NRC
US ORGANIZATIONS