Demand for energy in the commercial sector. Final report
This study focuses on several econometric models of the commercial demand for energy that are based on commercial-sector data developed especially for this project. Major data improvements have been made with respect to energy consumption, the rates charged for different types of energy, and the capital stock in this sector. Demand equations are estimated for electricity, natural gas, and distillate fuel oil for the 1963 to 1975 period, using two different specifications: a Koyck distributed lag model and a stock utilization model. The stock model is used to prepare demand projections by fuel type for the 1976 to 2000 period, based on assumptions developed by EPRI for three different scenarios. The research confirms the negative effects of higher energy prices on commercial energy demand for all three fuels. In addition, significant interfuel substitution occurs between natural gas and distillate oil in this sector. For both gas and oil, price of the substitute fuel has a positive effect on demand. Moreover, in the stock utilization framework, the availability of natural gas pipelines decreases consumption of distillate oil. In the stock models, commercial floor space serves as a proxy for energy-using stock. This variable has a very strong positive effect on the demand for all three fuels. Although the initial results do not reveal a one-to-one relationship between a proportional change in floor space and a proportional change in fuel consumption, an alternative specification that adjusts floor space for variations in climate, yields results for electricity and fuel oil that conform more closely to this relationship. In general, the results of the study justify modeling the commercial sector apart from the residential sector.
- Research Organization:
- Data Resources, Inc., Lexington, MA (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 5326370
- Report Number(s):
- EPRI-EA-2330; ON: DE82903857
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320104* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Commercial & Industrial Buildings-- (-1987)
BUILDINGS
COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
DEMAND
DEMAND FACTORS
DISTILLATES
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
NATURAL GAS
PETROLEUM
PETROLEUM DISTILLATES
PETROLEUM FRACTIONS
POWER
PRICES