Alaskan hydrocarbon supply model: methodology description

Technical Report · Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 1979

OSTI ID:5316099

The Alaskan Hydrocarbon Supply Model is a computer-based forecasting model which makes mid-term projections of Alaskan production of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. It also addresses questions concerning the effect on supply of resource availability, the construction of new pipelines, and governmental policies on leasing. The model uses different price levels to generate a set of supply curves for both onshore and offshore production. These curves cover 40 to 50 supply regions. The forecasting time horizon is 40 years in five-year increments. The modeling approach relies upon two major submodels. A resource submodel establishes a set of production possibilities. An integrating submodel then uses economic factors to decide which resources to develop and which pipeline links to build or expand at any given time. This submodel employs mixed-integer linear programming to project actual production and pipeline construction as a matter of cost minimization. The model's data base includes an extensive description of the geology for different supply regions. This includes the number of structures per region; distributions describing structure depth, structure size, and sedimentation for offshore areas; the physical characteristics of possible pipeline routes; and the volume of proved reserves. Also part of the data base are pipeline capacities and the costs to construct different pipeline links. Sources for the data are the US Geological Survey, State of Alaska energy reports, and engineering and cost estimates developed by consultants. The Alaskan Hydrocarbon Supply Model is part of the Mid-Term Energy Forecasting System (MEFS). Its output becomes part of the data base for the Mid-Term Energy Market Model (MEMM).

• Research Organization: Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA). Energy Information Administration
• OSTI ID: 5316099
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0103/22
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
02 PETROLEUM
03 NATURAL GAS
ALASKA
RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
STATISTICAL MODELS
LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS
NATURAL GAS
PETROLEUM
AVAILABILITY
COMPUTER CALCULATIONS
CONSTRUCTION
COST
DATA ACQUISITION
DATA ANALYSIS
DECISION MAKING
ENERGY MANAGEMENT
GEOLOGICAL SURVEYS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
MONTE CARLO METHOD
PIPELINES
PRODUCTION
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
MANAGEMENT
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NORTH AMERICA
PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION
SURVEYS
USA
294002* - Energy Planning & Policy- Petroleum
294003 - Energy Planning & Policy- Natural Gas
292000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
020700 - Petroleum- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
030600 - Natural Gas- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects