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Title: Critique of the mid-range energy forecasting, system oil and gas supply models

Abstract

The Mid-Range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) is a model used by the Department of Energy to forecast domestic production, consumption and price for conventional energy sources on a regional basis over a period of 5 to 15 years. Among the energy sources included in the model are oil, gas and other petroleum fuels, coal, uranium, and electricity. Final consumption of alternative energy sources is broken into end-use categories, such as residential, commercial and industrial uses. Regional prices for all energy sources are calculated by iteratively equating domestic supply and demand. The purpose of this paper is to assess the ability of the Oil and Gas Supply Submodels of MEFS to reliably and accurately project oil and gas supply curves, which are used in the integrating model, along with fuel demand curves to estimate market price. The reliability and accuracy of the oil and gas model cannot be judged by comparing its predictions against actual observations because those observations have not yet occurred. The reliability and reasonableness of the oil and gas supply model can be judged, however, by analyzing how well its assumptions and predictions correspond to accepted economic principles. This is the approach taken in this critique. The remaindermore » of this paper describes the general structure of the oil and gas supply model and how it functions to project the quantity of oil and gas forthcoming at given prices in a particular year, then discusses the economic soundness of the model, and finally suggests model changes to improve its performance.« less

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Battelle Pacific Northwest Labs., Richland, WA (USA)
OSTI Identifier:
6973034
Report Number(s):
PNL-3565
DOE Contract Number:
AC06-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; 02 PETROLEUM; 03 NATURAL GAS; ENERGY MODELS; EVALUATION; NATURAL GAS; ENERGY SUPPLIES; PETROLEUM; DRILLING; ECONOMETRICS; FORECASTING; INVESTMENT; PRICES; PRODUCTION; RELIABILITY; US DOE; ECONOMICS; ENERGY SOURCES; FLUIDS; FOSSIL FUELS; FUEL GAS; FUELS; GAS FUELS; GASES; NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS; US ORGANIZATIONS; 294002* - Energy Planning & Policy- Petroleum; 294003 - Energy Planning & Policy- Natural Gas; 292000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply, Demand & Forecasting; 020700 - Petroleum- Economics, Industrial, & Business Aspects; 030600 - Natural Gas- Economic, Industrial, & Business Aspects

Citation Formats

Patton, W.P.. Critique of the mid-range energy forecasting, system oil and gas supply models. United States: N. p., 1980. Web. doi:10.2172/6973034.
Patton, W.P.. Critique of the mid-range energy forecasting, system oil and gas supply models. United States. doi:10.2172/6973034.
Patton, W.P.. 1980. "Critique of the mid-range energy forecasting, system oil and gas supply models". United States. doi:10.2172/6973034. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/6973034.
@article{osti_6973034,
title = {Critique of the mid-range energy forecasting, system oil and gas supply models},
author = {Patton, W.P.},
abstractNote = {The Mid-Range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) is a model used by the Department of Energy to forecast domestic production, consumption and price for conventional energy sources on a regional basis over a period of 5 to 15 years. Among the energy sources included in the model are oil, gas and other petroleum fuels, coal, uranium, and electricity. Final consumption of alternative energy sources is broken into end-use categories, such as residential, commercial and industrial uses. Regional prices for all energy sources are calculated by iteratively equating domestic supply and demand. The purpose of this paper is to assess the ability of the Oil and Gas Supply Submodels of MEFS to reliably and accurately project oil and gas supply curves, which are used in the integrating model, along with fuel demand curves to estimate market price. The reliability and accuracy of the oil and gas model cannot be judged by comparing its predictions against actual observations because those observations have not yet occurred. The reliability and reasonableness of the oil and gas supply model can be judged, however, by analyzing how well its assumptions and predictions correspond to accepted economic principles. This is the approach taken in this critique. The remainder of this paper describes the general structure of the oil and gas supply model and how it functions to project the quantity of oil and gas forthcoming at given prices in a particular year, then discusses the economic soundness of the model, and finally suggests model changes to improve its performance.},
doi = {10.2172/6973034},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = 1980,
month =
}

Technical Report:

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