Uncertainty in carbon emissions, 1975-2075

Technical Report · Wed Jul 31 04:00:00 EDT 1985

OSTI ID:5307420

Edmonds, J; Reilly, J; Gardner, R; Brenkert, A

This report documents the results of work with the IEA/ORAU Long-Term Global Energy-CO/sub 2/ model to analyze model predictions of future global carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and the uncertainty surrounding such forecasts. The methodology utilized state-of-the-art techniques of uncertainty analysis along with review and revision of the IEA/ORAU model structure, and review and description of uncertainty surrounding model assumptions and parameters to explore uncertainty in fossil fuel CO/sub 2/ emissions over the period 1975 to 2075. Possible interrelationships among assumptions and parameters, and their effects on overall forecast uncertainty are explored. The major findings include: (1) the median rate of CO/sub 2/ emissions grows at an average annual rate of 1.0% per year; (2) overall uncertainty in the emission rate was found to be considerable. A range of 3.0% per year growth in emissions and a decline of 1.4% per year are needed to bracket 90% of the 400 randomly generated scenarios; and (3) low and declining CO/sub 2/ emissions rates appear more likely than past research has indicated. Roughly one quarter of the scenarios show global emissions falling from current levels. 49 refs., 12 figs., 14 tabs.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc., TN (USA); Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76OR00033
• OSTI ID: 5307420
• Report Number(s): DOE/OR/00033-T154; ON: DE85016825
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

500200* -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON DIOXIDE
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
COMBUSTION PRODUCTS
COMPUTER CODES
EMISSION
ENERGY SOURCES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
I CODES
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MONTE CARLO METHOD
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
PROBABILITY