Brookhaven integrated energy/economy modeling system and its use in conservation policy analysis

Technical Report · Sun Jul 01 04:00:00 EDT 1979

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5284113· OSTI ID:5284113

Groncki, P. J.; Marcuse, W.

The approach used at BNL to model the impact of the introduction of advanced energy technologies in response to increased energy prices has been to link econometric, process, and input-output models. The econometric model generates growth, employment, productivity, inflation, final demand, and price-determined input-output coefficients for a ten-sector interindustry model. The outputs from the six energy sectors are used to drive a national energy process model which supplies energy prices, fuel mix, and energy capital requirements to the econometric model. The four nonenergy final demands from the econometric model are disaggregated and used with the energy demands from the process model to drive a 110-sector input-output model. The nonenergy coefficients in the input-output model are fixed, but the energy coefficients are variable - reflecting the technologies chosen by the solution of the process model. Coefficients representing advanced-energy-technology production functions have been incorporated in the input-output structure. This approach is briefly described, and three applications of this set of linked models are presented: (1) reports the findings of a study of the effects of various levels of conservation on the rate of growth in GNP and other economic indicators; (2) describes an application of the linked models to an accelerated solar-technology scenario, focusing on the long-run macroeconomic impacts of increased solar utilization; and (3) currently in progress, examines the robustness of two policies (a supply and a demand policy) and their effect on the penetration of renewable technologies across a range of reference cases designed to capture several of the uncertainties faced by decision makers. 63 references.

• Research Organization: Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (USA). National Center for Analysis of Energy Systems
• DOE Contract Number: AC02-76CH00016
• OSTI ID: 5284113
• Report Number(s): BNL-51056
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

14 SOLAR ENERGY
140000 -- Solar Energy
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290100* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
291000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Conservation
299000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Unconventional Sources & Power Generation
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320300 -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Industrial & Agricultural Processes
BNL
CAPITAL
CONVERSION
DECISION MAKING
DEMAND
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMICS
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY CONVERSION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY POLICY
ENERGY SOURCE DEVELOPMENT
ENERGY SOURCES
FUELS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
INDUSTRY
INFLATION
INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
PRICES
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
SOLAR ENERGY CONVERSION
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
US AEC
US DOE
US ERDA
US ORGANIZATIONS