California demand and supply of crude oil: An econometric analysis with projections to 2000

Thesis/Dissertation · Tue Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1991

OSTI ID:5253482

Ibegbulam, B N

Forecast of California domestic crude oil supply requires the forecasts of California crude oil production and supply from Alaska. Future California crude oil production is forecast with an econometric model that postulates production as a function of reserves and reserves as a function of crude oil prices and exploration and development costs. Future supplies from Alaska are obtained by subtracting forecasts of Alaskan crude oil demand and shipments to the States of Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington from Alaskan North Slope crude oil production forecasts. A two-stage process was used to forecast future California crude oil demand. In the first stage, the demand for refined crude oil products was predicted with a single-equation double logarithmic rational-expectations dynamic model. In the second stage, the total demands obtained in the first stage were converted into a crude oil equivalent. It was found that the current surplus of domestic crude oil in California will end in 1994. Thereafter, California crude oil imports will sharply increase.

• Research Organization: California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States)
• OSTI ID: 5253482
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
CALIFORNIA
DEMAND
DEMAND FACTORS
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMICS
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
IMPORTS
NORTH AMERICA
PETROLEUM
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
USA