Demonstration plant supplementary technical studies section 10-confidence analysis. SRC-II demonstration project, phase zero, task number 1, deliverable number 3
The Gulf Management Sciences Group (GMSG) in Pittsburgh was asked to provide assistance in performing a confidence analysis for the SRC-II demonstration plant as required by the Department of Energy. Specifically, the contract says to discuss confidence levels for plant operating and capital costs; plant operability and technical risk. It was decided that the best way to obtain estimates for these variables would be through interviews of people with substantial experience in the field. Each subject was first asked what modifications he envisioned being made to the current plant design. Discussion was limited to major systems that might require partial redesign and comments concerning the plant in general. The interviewees were next asked to estimate the probability of success for the project, given that the modifications they envisioned were in fact made. The modes of the combined distributions of the interview results indicate that the respondents in general felt that the base case estimates represented the most probable outcomes with the possible exception of the capital cost estimate. On the other hand, the respondents consistently judged that there is a chance that the demonstration plant will perform significantly worse than the base case for each of the variables that were projected. This conclusion is supported by the skewness of the distributions. These distributions can be expected to narrow and some of the skewness will disappear as the final design of the plant is determined. A detailed analysis of the methodology employed is presented. (LTN)
- Research Organization:
- Pittsburg and Midway Coal Mining Co., Denver, CO (USA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC01-78ET11328
- OSTI ID:
- 5235736
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/ET/11328-T1
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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