Petroleum price increases and shortfalls: impact on Washington State employment

Technical Report · Wed Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1980

OSTI ID:5232860

Woodard, R H

The purpose of this Employment Security Department report is to assess the impact of petroleum price increases and petroleum shortfalls on employment in Washington State. In December 1979, the price of crude oil increased from $21.45 per barrel to $26.86 per barrel, a jump of 25 percent. The economic impact of this OPEC action, together with the impact of expected subsequent real price increases of 4 percent per year, was estimated. The results of that analysis indicate that at the national level the unemployment rate can be expected to rise one-tenth of a percentage point in 1980, three-tenths of a percentage point in 1981, and five-tenths of a percentage point in 1982. Assuming that the United States and Washington State are affected equally by petroleum price increases, an impact of this magnitude corresponds to a jobless increase in Washington of 1900 in 1980, 5700 in 1981, and 9500 in 1982. Simulations of petroleum shortfalls amounting to 2, 4, and 6 million barrels per day lasting a period of one year were recently conducted using 2 models. The result of these simulations is quite similar to one another for the years 1980 and 1981. Assuming that the two models generate equally reliable estimates of employment impacts, and that Washington State and the United States are equally affected by petroleum shortfalls, employment losses in Washington State can be calculated. Employment impacts in Washington are expected to be similar to, but less than those in the United States. The reason for this is that Washington tends to be less dependent on petroleum than the US as a whole.

• Research Organization: Washington State Dept. of Employment Security, Olympia (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5232860
• Report Number(s): NP-2901886; ON: DE82901886
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
DEMAND
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SUPPLY DISRUPTION
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR
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WASHINGTON