Econometrics 101: forecasting demystified

Journal Article · Thu May 01 00:00:00 EDT 1980 · Public Power; (United States)

OSTI ID:5228411

Crow, R T

Forecasting by econometric modeling is described in a commonsense way which omits much of the technical jargon. A trend of continuous growth is no longer an adequate forecasting tool. Today's forecasters must consider rapid changes in price, policies, regulations, capital availability, and the cost of being wrong. A forecasting model is designed by identifying future influences on electricity purchases and quantifying their relationships to each other. A record is produced which can be evaluated and used to make corrections in the models. Residential consumption is used to illustrate how this works and to demonstrate how power consumption is also related to the purchase and use of equipment. While models can quantify behavioral relationships, they cannot account for the impacts of non-price factors because of limited data. (DCK)

• Research Organization: Applied Forecasting and Analysis, Inc., Palo Alto, CA
• OSTI ID: 5228411
• Journal Information: Public Power; (United States), Vol. 38:3
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
FORECASTING
ECONOMETRICS
POWER DEMAND
BEHAVIOR
DEMAND FACTORS
ECONOMIC ELASTICITY
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
EQUIPMENT
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
ECONOMICS
PUBLIC UTILITIES
296000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Electric Power
292000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
290200 - Energy Planning & Policy- Economics & Sociology