Econometric model forecast of Iran, 1975--1985

Journal Article · · J. Energy Dev.; (United States)

OSTI ID:7318019

Shahshahani, A ^[1]; Dowling, Jr, J M

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1. Univ. of Teheran

Economic projections for Iran indicate that, while the country will achieve a developed status by 1985, the price will be rapid growth with inflation and unequal income distribution. Oil revenues are expected to decline after 1985 before industrialization can counter a recession. Model variables are separated into consumer expenditures, capital formation, foreign trade relations, government receipts, and money supply and price. The predictions are based on the assumption that exogenous variables of oil exports and total oil revenues will evolve. Other variables include population and a lower growth after 1980, a deficit of oil exports in relation to imports of goods and services, foreign control of public and bank notes, and the fast-growing manufacture of consumer goods. Endogenous variables include consumption, gross national product investments, imports, prices, taxes, nonoil exports, etc. Econometric modeling can help Iran coordinate oil revenue expenditures with its expanding economy by simulating the consequences and interactions of different policy actions. (DCK)

• OSTI ID: 7318019
• Journal Information: J. Energy Dev.; (United States), Journal Name: J. Energy Dev.; (United States) Vol. 2:1; ISSN JENDD
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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ASIA
BEHAVIOR
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMIC POLICY
ECONOMICS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
FORECASTING
INCOME
INDUSTRY
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
IRAN
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
TRADE
USES