Traffic flow forecasting: Comparison of modeling approaches

Journal Article · Fri Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 1997 · Journal of Transportation Engineering

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(1997)123:4(261)· OSTI ID:522384

Smith, B L ^[1]; Demetsky, M J ^[2]

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1. Virginia Transportation Research Council, Charlottesville, VA (United States)
2. Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

The capability to forecast traffic volume in an operational setting has been identified as a critical need for intelligent transportation systems (ITS). In particular, traffic volume forecasts will support proactive, dynamic traffic control. However, previous attempts to develop traffic volume forecasting models have met with limited success. This research effort focused on developing traffic volume forecasting models for two sites on Northern Virginia`s Capital Beltway. Four models were developed and tested for the freeway traffic flow forecasting problem, which is defined as estimating traffic flow 15 min into the future. They were the historical average, time-series, neural network, and nonparametric regression models. The nonparametric regression model significantly outperformed the other models. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test revealed that the nonparametric regression model experienced significantly lower errors than the other models. In addition, the nonparametric regression model was easy to implement, and proved to be portable, performing well at two distinct sites. Based on its success, research is ongoing to refine the nonparametric regression model and to extend it to produce multiple interval forecasts.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• OSTI ID: 522384
• Journal Information: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Journal Name: Journal of Transportation Engineering Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 123; ISSN JTPEDI; ISSN 0733-947X
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
FORECASTING
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
ON-LINE MEASUREMENT SYSTEMS
REAL TIME SYSTEMS
ROAD TRANSPORT
ROUTING
TRAFFIC CONTROL