Labor outlook for the bituminous coal mining industry. Final report. [Forecasting to 1990 and 2030]

Technical Report · Fri Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 1980

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5189289· OSTI ID:5189289

Wool, H.; Ostbo, J. B.

This study assesses the extent to which labor supply may be a constraining factor in expansion of US coal output, both in the mid-range period to 1990 and in the longer-term to 2030. Major study components include regional projections of coal industry labor requirements, labor supply, and unit labor costs to 1990, as well as illustrative projections of longer-term demand and supply factors. A combination of econometric and demographic methods are used, supplemented by reliance upon informed judgment for assessing key institutional and labor relations variables. The study concludes that labor supply should not be a significant constraint in the projected growth of coal output in the coming decade, in view of the industry's high wage structure and of a projected gradual improvement in overall productivity. Unit labor costs are expected to grow moderately, at a projected annual rate of about 1 percent, between 1977 and 1990, in constant dollars. Labor supply constraints, however, are considered to be more probable in the longer-term period to the year 2030 if coal demand grows to nearly 5 billion tons annually by the latter, year, as suggested by some recent long-term energy projections. The expected slowdown in US population growth and accompanying trends to an older and less mobile labor force are seen as leading to more rapid escalation of labor costs, unless offset by increased reliance upon more capital-intensive mining methods and technologies.

• Research Organization: Conference Board, New York (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5189289
• Report Number(s): EPRI-EA-1477
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT
012000 -- Coal
Lignite
& Peat-- Mining
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
294001* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Coal
COAL INDUSTRY
DATA
DEMAND
EMPLOYMENT
ENERGY DEMAND
FORECASTING
INDUSTRY
INFORMATION
LABOR RELATIONS
MANPOWER
MATHEMATICS
NORTH AMERICA
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTIVITY
STATISTICS
USA