Contribution of oil to the economic development in Kuwait (1962-1981): a macroeconometric approach

Thesis/Dissertation · Tue Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1985

OSTI ID:5163068

Hegazey, E E

A simultaneous-equations econometric model for the Kuwaiti economy is developed. Emphasis is placed on the supply side of the economy, and on the linkages between the Kuwait economy and the world economy via trade, investment, and money markets. In addition, the oil sector is integrated into the economy. The model provides a measure of the over-all contribution of oil to the growth of the GDP of Kuwait during the period 1962-1981. In addition, the author is able to show, indirectly, that foreign labor has significantly contributed to the growth of GDP during the period of the study. It is expected that foreign labor will continue to play an important role in the future. A simulation experiment was carried out to provide forecasts for time paths of the main variables of the economy. Three different scenarios, based upon the expected behavior of the exogenous variables, especially the behavior of the price of oil, are set. The impact multipliers and the long-run multipliers of changes in price of oil were derived. Furthermore, these same multipliers were derived for changes in GDP of European Economic Community and Japan.

• Research Organization: Connecticut Univ., Storrs (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5163068
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
ASIA
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMICS
ENERGY SOURCES
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
KUWAIT
LABOR
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MIDDLE EAST
PETROLEUM
SIMULATION