World coal demand, supply, and trade: a maximization analysis

Thesis/Dissertation · Sat Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1983

OSTI ID:5135517

Wescott, R F

The role of US coal on future world coal markets is of particular interest, because the country has the potential of being the world's dominent exporter. Among the questions addressed are, have government actions hurt US coal exports. Or could they be directed toward promoting foreign sales more effectively. This study provides a framework for analyzing these kinds of issues by modeling efficient production, allocation, and price patterns for world coal trade over the 1980-2004 period. This is accomplished through the construction and solution of an international trade flow model, a coal supply model, and an electric-sector interfuel substitution model. The supply and demand modeling take process analysis approaches. The main conclusion is that US coal will be competitive on future world coal markets, especially after 1990, largely because the United States is the only producer capable of being the world's balancing supplier. In pure price terms, however, Australia, South Africa, and Canada will all be able to produce and deliver coal somewhat cheaper. The main trade flows are expected to be eastward across the United States, from the US east coast and South Africa to Europe, and from Canada, Australia, and the US Rockies to the Pacific Rim.

• OSTI ID: 5135517
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT
015000* -- Coal
Lignite
& Peat-- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
294001 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Coal
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
COAL
COMPETITION
ENERGY SOURCES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
MARKET
MATERIALS
PRICES
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
TRADE