The new politics of missile proliferation
- Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, VA (United States)
The author addresses the most consequential proliferation battle of the 1990s which occurred in Washington over the interpretation of the long-term threat to the United States from ballistic missiles. In the early 1970s, the stabilization of the US-Soviet strategic relationship led to new disputes over the other side`s future intentions, seen most graphically in Western debates over the implications of the Soviet SS-18 and SS-20 missile programs. Today, in much the same way, proliferation politics has matured to the point that surprises are few and the most challenging problem is anticipating the more distant future. Washington`s ballistic missile proliferation battle was sparked by National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) 95-19, entitled {open_quotes}Emerging Threats to North America During the Next 15 Years,{close_quotes} released by the National Intelligence Council in November 1995. This document updated the evidence of regional missile programs reviewed in a similar report issued in 1993, and recapitulated the previous finding that {open_quotes}No country, other than the major declared nuclear powers, will develop or otherwise acquire a ballistic missile in the next 15 years that could threatened the contiguous 48 states or Canada.{close_quotes} The new report confirmed what several other studies of missile proliferation had already established: that besides the five nuclear-weapon states (the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain), only India, Israel and Japan are in a position to develop an ICBM during the foreseeable future, and while all have relevant capabilities, none are undertaking the steps necessary to develop an actual ICBM.
- OSTI ID:
- 508710
- Journal Information:
- Arms Control Today, Journal Name: Arms Control Today Journal Issue: 8 Vol. 26; ISSN ACOTEB; ISSN 0196-125X
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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