Macroeconometric and simulation analysis of increasing energy prices on US agriculture

Thesis/Dissertation · Sat Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1983

OSTI ID:5060428

Hullur, I S

This study investigates the impact of alternative energy prices on the US agricultural economy. More specifically, the objectives that guided the study were: (1) to formulate a theoretical economic model for the major crops and livestock sectors of US agriculture, making certain that sectors important to Kentucky agriculture were included; (2) to estimate statistical version of the theoretical model by 2SLS method using monthly data from 1965 to 1979, examine the model for its theoretical as well as empirical consistencies, and assess the model's ability to forecast; (3) to project the exogenous variables by using time-series, regression, or extrapolation procedures, thereby projecting the right-hand-side endogenous variables for the forecast period; (4) to use the model as a predictive device on the basis of 2SLS estimates of structural parameters, and projections on exogenous and endogenous variables; and (5) to conduct three simulation scenarios pertaining to alternative levels of energy prices, and analyze the impact of those changes on the selected crops and livestock sectors, in particular, on the US agricultural economy in general. The conditions simulated included: (1) a 6% annual rate of increase, compounded monthly, in the fuel and fertilizer price index; (2) a 10% annual rate of increase, compounded monthly, in the fuel and fertilizer price index. The simulation results found in this study are, for the most part, consistent with the expected results, and with historical trends.

• OSTI ID: 5060428
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290100 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320300* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Industrial & Agricultural Processes
AGRICULTURE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC IMPACT
ECONOMICS
ENERGY EXPENSES
ENERGY MODELS
FEDERAL REGION IV
INDUSTRY
KENTUCKY
NORTH AMERICA
SIMULATION
USA