The effect of greenhouse SSTs on ENSO simulations with an AGCM

Journal Article · Sat Feb 01 04:00:00 EST 1997 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0342:TEOGSO>2.0.CO;2· OSTI ID:460086

Smith, I N; Dix, M; Allan, R J ^[1]

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1. CSIRO, Victoria (Australia)

The potential for changes to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon under enhanced greenhouse conditions is addressed in a series of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments with both 1 x CO{sub 2} radiative forcing and prescribed sea surface temperatures. In the first series of experiments, climate anomalies associated with the 1987 {open_quotes}warm{close_quotes} event SSTs are simulated for present-day (1 x CO{sub 2}) conditions. The result reveal realistic large-scale perturbations to mean sea level pressure, rainfall, evaporation, and low-level and upper-level winds compared to simulations using climatological SSTs. In the second series of experiments, the same warm anomalies are superimposed on the equilibrium SSTs calculated during the course of 2 x CO{sub 2} equilibrium experiments. The resultant SSTs provide an analog warm event for enhanced greenhouse conditions. The simulated climate anomalies for this greenhouse event are similar to those of the present-day event, but, although some changes are found in the western Pacific region, the results suggest that increased static stability may dampen the effects of any nonlinear increase in evaporation and that any changes in the behavior of ENSO due to predicted temperature increases in the Tropics may not be significant. 33 refs., 11 figs.

• OSTI ID: 460086
• Journal Information: Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 10; ISSN JLCLEL; ISSN 0894-8755
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
EVAPORATION
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
SEAS
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION