PHASER 2.10 methodology for dependence, importance, and sensitivity: The role of scale factors, confidence factors, and extremes
- Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). System Studies Dept.
PHASER (Probabilistic Hybrid Analytical System Evaluation Routine) is a software tool that has the capability of incorporating subjective expert judgment into probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) along with conventional data inputs. An earlier report described the PHASER methodology, but only gave a cursory explanation about how dependence was incorporated in Version 1.10 and about how ``Importance`` and ``Sensitivity`` measures were to be incorporated in Version 2.00. A more detailed description is given in this report. The basic concepts involve scale factors and confidence factors that are associated with the stochastic variability and subjective uncertainty (which are common adjuncts used in PSA), and the safety risk extremes that are crucial to safety assessment. These are all utilized to illustrate methodology for incorporating dependence among analysis variables in generating PSA results, and for Importance and Sensitivity measures associated with the results that help point out where any major sources of safety concern arise and where any major sources of uncertainty reside, respectively.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC04-94AL85000
- OSTI ID:
- 392821
- Report Number(s):
- SAND--96-2304; ON: DE97000460
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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