Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

Akdemir, Kerem Ziya; Mongird, Kendall; Bracken, Cameron; Burleyson, Casey D.; Kern, Jordan D.; Oikonomou, Konstantinos; Thurber, Travis B.; Vernon, Chris R.; Voisin, Nathalie; Zhao, Mengqi; Rice, Jennie S.

doi:10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100249

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

Journal Article · Sun Oct 19 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · Advances in Applied Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100249· OSTI ID:3000218

^[1]; Mongird, Kendall ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[1]; Kern, Jordan D. ^[2]; Oikonomou, Konstantinos ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[1]; Zhao, Mengqi ^[3]; Rice, Jennie S. ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); University of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth & Environmental Systems Science (EESS)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 3000218

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--213096

Journal Information:: Advances in Applied Energy, Journal Name: Advances in Applied Energy Vol. 20; ISSN 2666-7924

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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