Recent Warming of the Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Lower Stratosphere and Antarctic Ozone Healing

Sweeney, Aodhan; Fu, Qiang; Solomon, Susan; Po‐Chedley, Stephen; Randel, William J.; Steiner, Andrea; Lin, Pu; Birner, Thomas; Davis, Sean; Wang, Peidong

doi:10.1029/2025AV001737

Recent Warming of the Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Lower Stratosphere and Antarctic Ozone Healing

Journal Article · Sat Aug 02 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · AGU Advances

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001737· OSTI ID:2575220

^[1]; ^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]; Steiner, Andrea ^[5]; ^[6]; ^[7]; ^[8]; ^[2]

Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of Graz (Austria)
Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)
Ludwig Maximilian Univ. of Munich, Munich (Germany); Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL)

Observed temperature changes from 2002 to 2022 reveal a pronounced warming of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) subtropical lower stratosphere, and a cooling of the Antarctic lower stratosphere. In contrast, model simulations of 21st-century stratospheric temperature changes show widespread cooling driven by increasing greenhouse gases, with local warming in the Antarctic lower stratosphere due to ozone healing. We provide evidence that these discrepancies between observed and simulated stratospheric temperature changes are linked to a slowdown of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, particularly in the SH. These changes in the stratospheric circulation are strongest from October through December. This altered circulation warms the SH subtropical lower stratosphere while cooling the Antarctic lower stratosphere, canceling and even reversing the Antarctic ozone recovery that would have occurred in its absence during this period. When circulation changes are accounted for, the SH subtropical lower-stratospheric warming is removed, and Antarctic lower-stratospheric warming is revealed with enhanced ozone healing, highlighting the crucial role of the stratospheric circulation in shaping temperature and ozone changes.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 2575220

Report Number(s):: LLNL--JRNL-872921

Journal Information:: AGU Advances, Journal Name: AGU Advances Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 6; ISSN 2576-604X

Publisher:: WileyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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