Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation

Furniss, Tucker J.; Povak, Nicholas; Hessburg, Paul F.; Salter, R. Brion; Duan, Zhuoran; Wigmosta, Mark

doi:10.1186/s42408-024-00339-y

Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation

Journal Article · Tue Dec 17 23:00:00 EST 2024 · Fire Ecology (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00339-y· OSTI ID:2563405

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Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)
USDA Forest Service, Wenatchee, WA (United States); USDA Forest Service, Placerville, CA (United States)
USDA Forest Service, Wenatchee, WA (United States); Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
USDA Forest Service, Wenatchee, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

Modern land management faces unprecedented uncertainty regarding future climates, novel disturbance regimes, and unanticipated ecological feedbacks. Mitigating this uncertainty requires a cohesive landscape management strategy that utilizes multiple methods to optimize benefits while hedging risks amidst uncertain futures. We used a process-based landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) to forecast forest management, growth, climate effects, and future wildfire dynamics, and we distilled results using a decision support tool allowing us to examine tradeoffs between alternative management strategies. We developed plausible future management scenarios based on factorial combinations of restoration-oriented thinning prescriptions, prescribed fire, and wildland fire use. Results were assessed continuously for a 100-year simulation period, which provided a unique assessment of tradeoffs and benefits among seven primary topics representing social, ecological, and economic aspects of resilience. Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services. This study provides evidence that optimal future scenarios will involve a mix of active and passive management strategies, allowing different management tactics to coexist within and among ownerships classes. Our results also emphasize the importance of wildfire management decisions as central to building more robust and resilient future landscapes.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Office of Sustainable Transportation. Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830; SC0017519

OSTI ID:: 2563405

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--196724

Journal Information:: Fire Ecology (Online), Journal Name: Fire Ecology (Online) Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 20; ISSN 1933-9747

Publisher:: Association for Fire Ecology (AFE)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
LANDIS-II
carbon
climate change
decision support systems
forest landscape models
landscape ecology
resilience
temperate forests
wildfire

Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation

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