Informing climate adaptation strategies using ecological simulation models and spatial decision support tools

Furniss, Tucker J.; Povak, Nicholas A.; Hessburg, Paul F.; Salter, R. Brion; Duan, Zhuoran; Wigmosta, Mark S.

doi:10.3389/ffgc.2023.1269081

Informing climate adaptation strategies using ecological simulation models and spatial decision support tools

Journal Article · Thu Nov 23 00:00:00 EST 2023 · Frontiers in Forests and Global Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1269081· OSTI ID:2340830

Furniss, Tucker J. ^[1]; Povak, Nicholas A. ^[2]; Hessburg, Paul F. ^[3]; Salter, R. Brion ^[4]; Duan, Zhuoran ^[5]; Wigmosta, Mark S. ^[6]

USDA Forest Service, Wenatchee, WA (United States). Pacific Northwest Research Station; Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)
USDA Forest Service, Wenatchee, WA (United States). Pacific Northwest Research Station; USDA Forest Service, Placerville, CA (United States). Pacific Southwest Research Station
USDA Forest Service, Wenatchee, WA (United States). Pacific Northwest Research Station; Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
USDA Forest Service, Wenatchee, WA (United States). Pacific Northwest Research Station
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

Introduction: Forest landscapes offer resources and ecosystem services that are vital to the social, economic, and cultural well-being of human communities, but managing for these provisions can require socially and ecologically relevant trade-offs. We designed a spatial decision support model to reveal trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services in a large eastern Cascade Mountain landscape in Washington State, USA. Methods: We used process-based forest landscape (LANDIS-II) and hydrology (DHSVM) models to compare outcomes associated with 100 years of simulated forest and wildfire dynamics for two management scenarios, Wildfire only and Wildfire + Treatments. We then examined the strength and spatial distribution of potential treatment effects and trends in a set of resources and ecosystem services over the simulation period. Results: We found that wildfire area burned increased over time, but some impacts could be mitigated by adaptation treatments. Treatment benefits were not limited to treated areas. Interestingly, we observed neighborhood benefits where fire spread and severity were reduced not only in treated patches but in adjacent patches and landscapes as well, creating potential synergies among some resource benefits and services. Ordinations provided further evidence for two main kinds of outcomes. Positive ecological effects of treatments were greatest in upper elevation moist and cold forests, while positive benefits to human communities were aligned with drier, low- and mid-elevation forests closer to the wildland urban interface. Discussion: Our results contribute to improved understanding of synergies and tradeoffs linked to adaptation and restoration efforts in fire-prone forests and can be used to inform management aimed at rebuilding resilient, climate-adapted landscapes.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Office of Sustainable Transportation. Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830; SC0017519

OSTI ID:: 2340830

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--189192

Journal Information:: Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Name: Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Vol. 6; ISSN 2624-893X

Publisher:: Frontiers Media S.A.Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Informing climate adaptation strategies using ecological simulation models and spatial decision support tools

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