Compounding effects of climate change and WUI expansion quadruple the likelihood of extreme-impact wildfires in California

Kumar, Mukesh; AghaKouchak, Amir; Abatzoglou, John T.; Sadegh, Mojtaba

doi:10.1038/s44304-025-00067-6

Compounding effects of climate change and WUI expansion quadruple the likelihood of extreme-impact wildfires in California

Journal Article · Thu Feb 20 23:00:00 EST 2025 · npj Natural Hazards (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00067-6· OSTI ID:2530355

^[1]; AghaKouchak, Amir ^[2]; Abatzoglou, John T. ^[3]; Sadegh, Mojtaba ^[4]

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); United Nations University, Hamilton, ON (Canada). Institute for Water, Environment and Health
Univ. of California, Merced, CA (United States)
United Nations University, Hamilton, ON (Canada). Institute for Water, Environment and Health; Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

Previous research has examined individual factors contributing to wildfire risk, but the compounding effects of these factors remain underexplored. Here, we introduce the “Integrated Human-centric Wildfire Risk Index (IHWRI)” to quantify the compounding effects of fire-weather intensification and anthropogenic factors—including ignitions and human settlement into wildland—on wildfire risk. While climatic trends increased the frequency of high-risk fire-weather by 2.5-fold, the combination of this trend with wildland-urban interface expansion led to a 4.1-fold increase in the frequency of conditions conducive to extreme-impact wildfires from 1990 to 2022 across California. More than three-quarters of extreme-impact wildfires—defined as the top 20 largest, most destructive, or deadliest events on record—originated within 1 km from the wildland-urban interface. The deadliest and most destructive wildfires—90% of which were human-caused—primarily occurred in the fall, while the largest wildfires—56% of which were human-caused—mostly took place in the summer. By integrating human activity and climate change impacts, we provide a holistic understanding of human-centric wildfire risk, crucial for policy development.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 2530355

Report Number(s):: LA-UR--25-20794

Journal Information:: npj Natural Hazards (Online), Journal Name: npj Natural Hazards (Online) Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 2; ISSN 2948-2100

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Compounding effects of climate change and WUI expansion quadruple the likelihood of extreme-impact wildfires in California

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