Climate change and its influence on water systems increases the cost of electricity system decarbonization

Szinai, Julia K.; Yates, David; Sánchez-Pérez, Pedro A.; Staadecker, Martin; Kammen, Daniel M.; Jones, Andrew D.; Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Patricia

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-54162-9

Climate change and its influence on water systems increases the cost of electricity system decarbonization

Journal Article · Mon Nov 25 00:00:00 EST 2024 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54162-9· OSTI ID:2481284

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Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Univ. of Toronto, ON (Canada); Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)
University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)

The electric sector simultaneously faces two challenges: decarbonization to mitigate, and adaptation to manage, the impacts of climate change. In many regions, these challenges are compounded by an interdependence of electricity and water systems, with water needed for hydropower generation and electricity for water provision. Here, we couple detailed water and electricity system models to evaluate how the Western Interconnection grid can both adapt to climate change and develop carbon-free generation by 2050, while accounting for interactions and climate vulnerabilities of the water sector. We find that by 2050, due to climate change, annual regional electricity use could grow by up to 2% from cooling and water-related electricity demand, while total annual hydropower generation could decrease by up to 23%. To adapt, we show that the region may need to build up to 139 GW of additional generating capacity between 2030 and 2050, equivalent to nearly thrice California's peak demand, and could incur up to $$\$$$$150 billion (+7%) in extra costs.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth & Environmental Systems Science (EESS)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC36-08GO28308; SC0016605

OSTI ID:: 2481284

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA--6A40-92423; MainId:94204; UUID:75a67d2d-948c-4fd7-a141-590e3a60d315; MainAdminId:75483

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 15; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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