Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic
- Veterans Health Administration (VHA), Washington, DC (United States); Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD (United States)
- Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Using a networked, agent-based computational model of a stylized community, we evaluated thresholds for rescinding 2 community mitigation strategies after an influenza pandemic. We ended child sequestering or all-community sequestering when illness incidence waned to thresholds of 0, 1, 2, or 3 cases in 7 days in 2 levels of pandemic severity. An unmitigated epidemic or strategy continuation for the epidemic duration served as control scenarios. The 0-case per 7-day rescinding threshold was comparable to the continuation strategy on infection and illness rates but reduced the number of days strategies would be needed by 6% to 32% in mild or severe pandemics. If cases recurred, strategies were resumed at a predefined 10-case trigger, and epidemic recurrence was thwarted. Strategies were most effective when used with high compliance and when combined with stringent rescinding thresholds. The need for strategies implemented for control of an influenza pandemic was reduced, without increasing illness rates.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
- Grant/Contract Number:
- NA0003525; AC04-94AL85000
- OSTI ID:
- 2471733
- Journal Information:
- Emerging Infectious Diseases, Journal Name: Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 14; ISSN 1080-6040
- Publisher:
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)Copyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Targeted Social Distancing Designs for Pandemic Influenza
The effect of healthcare environments on a pandemic influenza outbreak.