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Targeted Social Distancing Designs for Pandemic Influenza

Journal Article · · Emerging Infectious Diseases
 [1];  [2];  [1];  [1]
  1. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
  2. Albuquerque Public High School, NM (United States)

Targeted social distancing to mitigate pandemic influenza can be designed through simulation of influenza's spread within local community social contact networks. We demonstrate this design for a stylized community representative of a small town in the United States. The critical importance of children and teenagers in transmission of influenza is first identified and targeted. For influenza as infectious as 1957–58 Asian flu (≈50% infected), closing schools and keeping children and teenagers at home reduced the attack rate by >90%. For more infectious strains, or transmission that is less focused on the young, adults and the work environment must also be targeted. Tailored to specific communities across the world, such design would yield local defenses against a highly virulent strain in the absence of vaccine and antiviral drugs.

Research Organization:
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
Grant/Contract Number:
NA0003525; AC04-94AL85000
OSTI ID:
2471732
Journal Information:
Emerging Infectious Diseases, Journal Name: Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 12; ISSN 1080-6040
Publisher:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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