Spring Regional Sea Surface Temperatures as a Precursor of European Summer Heatwaves

Beobide‐Arsuaga, Goratz; Düsterhus, André; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Baehr, Johanna

doi:10.1029/2022gl100727

Spring Regional Sea Surface Temperatures as a Precursor of European Summer Heatwaves

Journal Article · Tue Jan 17 00:00:00 EST 2023 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100727· OSTI ID:2424713

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Universität Hamburg (Germany); International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg (Germany)
Maynooth University (Ireland)
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO (United States)
Universität Hamburg (Germany)

Different spring and early summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have been shown to precede recent European summer heatwaves (EuSHWs). So far, the limited number of observed events associated with several physical mechanisms has prevented a robust identification of SSTAs as precursors. Here, we extend beyond previous studies by combining 100 historical simulations (1850–2005) of the MPI Grand-Ensemble with an explainable neural-network method. We find that the spring tripolar North Atlantic pattern with positive SSTAs in the Subtropical Gyre is a precursor of EuSHWs. In addition, positive SSTAs west of the Iberian Peninsula, and in the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean Sea relate to distinct early summer soil moisture anomaly patterns and are precursors of western and southeastern EuSHWs, respectively. While the phase of the tripolar North Atlantic pattern indicates whether a EuSHW might emerge, regional SSTAs indicate the spatial characteristics of EuSHWs.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: US Department of Energy (USDOE), Washington, DC (United States). Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER), Regional and Global Model Analysis Program

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 2424713

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 50; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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