Uncovering the interannual predictability of the 2003 European summer heatwave linked to the Tibetan Plateau

Shi, Pengfei; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Hui; Wang, Bin; Yang, Kun; Chen, Haishan

doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00782-3

Uncovering the interannual predictability of the 2003 European summer heatwave linked to the Tibetan Plateau

Journal Article · Wed Oct 09 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00782-3· OSTI ID:2461654

Shi, Pengfei ^[1]; ^[2]; Lu, Hui ^[3]; Wang, Bin ^[4]; ^[3]; ^[5]

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China)

Known as the Third Pole, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) significantly influences global weather and climate, but its potential for improving subseasonal-to-interannual predictions remains underexplored. Through coupled climate simulations and hindcast experiments, we uncovered interannual predictability of the 2003 European summer heatwave that persisted from June to August with devastating impacts. Hindcasts initialized from the atmosphere, land, and ocean states of a coupled simulation that assimilates soil moisture and soil temperature data over the TP show substantial skill in predicting this heatwave two years in advance. Hindcast sensitivity experiments isolated the indispensable role of the spring TP snow cover anomalies and their impact on the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans in exciting the Rossby waves that contributed to the anomalous European summer temperature. These findings highlight the dominant and remote influence of the TP and motivate research on its role in enhancing the predictability of extreme events worldwide.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2461654

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2473725

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--203931

Journal Information:: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Name: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 7; ISSN 2397-3722

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Uncovering the interannual predictability of the 2003 European summer heatwave linked to the Tibetan Plateau

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