The Impacts of a Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on ENSO in a Warmer Climate

Liu, Wei; Duarte Cavalcante Pinto, David; Fedorov, Alexey; Zhu, Jiang

doi:10.1029/2023gl103025

The Impacts of a Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on ENSO in a Warmer Climate

Journal Article · Thu Apr 20 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl103025· OSTI ID:2422201

^[1]; Duarte Cavalcante Pinto, David ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]

Univ. of California, Riverside, CA (United States); OSTI
Univ. of California, Riverside, CA (United States)
Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States); Sorbonne Univ., Paris (France)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

This study quantifies the impacts of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under anthropogenic warming by comparing climate change model simulations with declining and fixed strengths of the overturning. After the 1980s, a weakened AMOC is shown to reduce the strength of the annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce anomalous cross-equatorial northerly winds there, which strengthens ENSO variability by about 11%. An analysis of the Bjerknes stability index reveals that this intensification of ENSO results mainly from enhanced Ekman upwelling feedback due to amplified atmospheric wind response to SST anomalies and oceanic upwelling response to equatorial wind stress anomalies. The weakened AMOC also promotes the occurrence of Central Pacific El Niño events and reduces ENSO skewness. These AMOC impacts on ENSO magnitude and complexity throughout the twenty-first century are however smaller than ENSO variations expected from internal climate variability.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0023134

OSTI ID:: 2422201

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 8 Vol. 50; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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