Response of Global SSTs and ENSO to the Atlantic and Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulations

Molina, Maria J.; Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-21-0172.1

Response of Global SSTs and ENSO to the Atlantic and Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulations

Journal Article · Mon Nov 22 00:00:00 EST 2021 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0172.1· OSTI ID:1845078

^[1]; Hu, Aixue ^[2]; Meehl, Gerald A. ^[2]

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Consequences from a slowdown or collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) could include modulations to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and development of the Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC). Despite potential ramifications to the global climate, our understanding of the influence of various AMOC and PMOC states on ENSO and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remains limited. Five multicentennial, fully coupled model simulations created with the Community Earth System Model were used to explore the influence of AMOC and PMOC on global SSTs and ENSO. We found that the amplitude of annual cycle SSTs across the tropical Pacific decreases and ENSO amplitude increases as a result of an AMOC shutdown, irrespective of PMOC development. However, active deep overturning circulations in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins reduce ENSO amplitude and variance of monthly SSTs globally. Furthermore, the underlying physical reasons for changes to global SSTs and ENSO are also discussed, with the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms that drive changes to ENSO amplitude differing based on PMOC state. These results suggest that if climate simulations projecting AMOC weakening are realized, compounding climate impacts could occur given the far-reaching ENSO teleconnections to extreme weather and climate events. More broadly, these results provide us with insight into past geologic era climate states, when PMOC was active.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0022070

OSTI ID:: 1845078

Journal Information:: Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 35; ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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The Importance of Wind and Buoyancy Forcing for the Boundary Density Variations and the Geostrophic Component of the AMOC at 26°N Polo, Irene; Robson, Jon; Sutton, Rowan Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 44, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-13-0264.1	journal	September 2014
Clarifying the Relation between AMOC and Thermal Wind: Application to the Centennial Variability in a Coupled Climate Model Waldman, Robin; Hirschi, Joël; Voldoire, Aurore Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 51, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-19-0284.1	journal	February 2021
Improved Estimation of Proxy Sea Surface Temperature in the Arctic Banzon, Viva; Smith, Thomas M.; Steele, Michael Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 37, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-19-0177.1	journal	February 2020
An Alert Classification System for Monitoring and Assessing the ENSO Cycle Kousky, V. E.; Higgins, R. W. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 22, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF987.1	journal	April 2007
Is the Gulf Stream responsible for Europe's mild winters? Seager, R.; Battisti, D. S.; Yin, J. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 128, Issue 586 https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.01.128	journal	October 2002
Frequency- or amplitude-dependent effects of the Atlantic meridional overturning on the tropical Pacific Ocean van Oldenborgh, G. J.; te Raa, L. A.; Dijkstra, H. A. Ocean Science, Vol. 5, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/os-5-293-2009	journal	January 2009

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