Compound Flooding in Halmstad: Common Causes, Interannual Variability and the Effects of Climate Change

Hieronymus, Magnus; Berg, Peter; Ashraf, Faisal Bin; Barquet, Karina

doi:10.16993/tellusa.4068

Compound Flooding in Halmstad: Common Causes, Interannual Variability and the Effects of Climate Change

Journal Article · Fri Jul 05 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Tellus. Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.4068· OSTI ID:2406753

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Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping (Sweden)
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Stockholm Environment Institute (Sweden)
Stockholm Environment Institute (Sweden)

Compound flooding was investigated in Halmstad on the Swedish west coast. The highest sea level ever recorded in Sweden was recorded by the Halmstad tide gauge. Moreover, through the city runs Nissan, one of the largest hydropower-producing rivers in southern Sweden. Together these features make the city an interesting location to study compound flooding. Co-variability between different hazards are studied using a unique set of downscaled climate scenario projections produced using state-of-the-art regional atmosphere, ocean and hydrological models. River discharge and sea level annual maxima are found to be correlated with peak strength on interannual time scales. This co-variability is found to derive from a mutual dependence that these hazards have on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Precipitation also shares this dependence in winter months and acts as a driver, building up the fluvial river hazard, while potentially adding additional pluvial hazard. Trends are also assessed, and it was found that future changes in compound flooding will most likely be driven primarily by mean sea level rise and secondarily by increases in mean river discharge.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 2406753

Journal Information:: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography (Online), Journal Name: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography (Online) Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 76; ISSN 1600-0870

Publisher:: Taylor & FrancisCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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