Integrated assessment modeling of a zero-emissions global transportation sector

Speizer, Simone; Fuhrman, Jay; Lopez, Laura Aldrete; George, Mel; Kyle, Page; Monteith, Seth; McJeon, Haewon

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-48424-9

Integrated assessment modeling of a zero-emissions global transportation sector

Journal Article · Fri May 24 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48424-9· OSTI ID:2367524

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Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
ClimateWorks Foundation, San Francisco, CA (United States)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

Currently responsible for over one fifth of carbon emissions worldwide, the transportation sector will need to undergo a substantial technological transition to ensure compatibility with global climate goals. Few studies have modeled strategies to achieve zero emissions across all transportation modes, including aviation and shipping, alongside an integrated analysis of feedbacks on other sectors and environmental systems. Here, we use a global integrated assessment model to evaluate deep decarbonization scenarios for the transportation sector consistent with maintaining end-of-century warming below 1.5 °C, considering varied timelines for fossil fuel phase-out and implementation of advanced alternative technologies. We highlight the leading low carbon technologies for each transportation mode, finding that electrification contributes most to decarbonization across the sector. Biofuels and hydrogen are particularly important for aviation and shipping. Our most ambitious scenario eliminates transportation emissions by mid-century, contributing substantially to achieving climate targets but requiring rapid technological shifts with integrated impacts on fuel demands and availability and upstream energy transitions.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2367524

Report Number(s):: PNNL-ACT-SA--10757

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 15; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Integrated assessment modeling of a zero-emissions global transportation sector

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