Transportation in net-zero emissions futures: Insights from the EMF-37 model intercomparison study

Hoehne, Christopher; Muratori, Matteo; Bistline, John; Lenox, Carol; McCollum, David L.; Browning, Morgan; Podkaminer, Kara; Beach, Robert H.; Orvis, Robbie; Ou, Shiqi; Kyle, Page; Lie, Sharyn; Mahajan, Megan; McJeon, Haewon; Ledna, Catherine; Melaina, Marc; Cai, Yongxia; Ramig, Christopher; Bahreinian, Aniss; Victor, Nadejda; Bahn, Olivier; Vaillancourt, Kathleen; Starke, Emma; Fawcett, Allen; McFarland, James; Blanford, Geoffrey; Mai, Trieu; Weyant, John

doi:10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100211

Transportation in net-zero emissions futures: Insights from the EMF-37 model intercomparison study

Journal Article · Mon Aug 11 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · Energy and Climate Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100211· OSTI ID:2588764

^[1]; ^[2]; Bistline, John ^[3]; Lenox, Carol ^[4]; McCollum, David L. ^[5]; Browning, Morgan ^[4]; Podkaminer, Kara ^[6]; Beach, Robert H. ^[7]; Orvis, Robbie ^[8]; Ou, Shiqi ^[9]; Kyle, Page ^[10]; Lie, Sharyn ^[4]; Mahajan, Megan ^[8]; McJeon, Haewon ^[11]; Ledna, Catherine ^[1]; Melaina, Marc ^[6]; Cai, Yongxia ^[7]; Ramig, Christopher ^[4]; Bahreinian, Aniss ^[12]; Victor, Nadejda ^[13] more »

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States)
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States)
Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
US Department of Energy (USDOE), Washington, DC (United States)
RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)
Energy Innovation, San Francisco, CA (United States)
South China Univ. of Technology (SCUT), Guangzhou (China)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
California Energy Commission, Sacramento, CA (United States)
National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA (United States)
HEC Montréal, QC (Canada)
ESMIA Consultants, Blainville (Canada)
Simon Fraser Univ., Burnaby, BC (Canada)
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

Transportation is currently the largest source of U.S. anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, at about a third of the total. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century will require substantial reductions in transportation emissions across passenger and freight travel. Here we leverage a model intercomparison study to explore the role of transportation in scenarios achieving net-zero economy-wide CO₂ emissions by 2050. We find the transport sector is poised to play the most significant role in reducing demand-side emissions, mostly driven by technology substitution, as modeling results suggest a limited role for mode shifting and for reduced use of personal car travel in the U.S. Among various technology solutions, models show agreement that passenger on-road vehicles will largely transition to electric vehicles (EVs), while solutions to decarbonize heavier travel modes are more diverse and include greater use of liquid biofuels and hydrogen. Research should continue to investigate the evolution of on-road electrification, the role of biofuels and hydrogen across heavier travel modes, and the role of mode shifting and travel behavior change to support personal transportation decarbonization at national and regional scales to temper the rapid growth in clean fuel and electricity demand.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 2588764

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 3000244

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA--5400-89137

Journal Information:: Energy and Climate Change, Journal Name: Energy and Climate Change Vol. 6; ISSN 2666-2787

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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