Skip to main content
OSTI.GOVU.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
 

Winter precipitation predictability in Central Southwest Asia and its representation in seasonal forecast systems

Journal Article · · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4]
  1. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH (United States)
  2. Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy)
  3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Princeton, NJ (United States). Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
  4. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
In Central Southwest Asia (CSWA; 22°N to 40°N and 30°E to 70°E), winter (November to February) precipitation contributes up to 70% of the annual mean, but substantial interannual variations exist. Dynamical models exhibit subpar predictability in this region, but the limits of their skills are not well established. Here, we identify the tropical and extratropical forcings that explain ~75% of area-averaged seasonal variability in CSWA winter precipitation. Tropical forcing comes from the indirect El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pathway, the leading mode of tropical Indian Ocean precipitation variability. This mode is coupled with ENSO-related Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature variability. A direct ENSO influence on CSWA does not extend beyond its Indian Ocean connection. Extratropical forcing comes from a large-scale mode of internal atmospheric variability. The spatial structure, variability of tropical forcing, and teleconnection with CSWA winter precipitation are skillfully depicted in two seasonal forecasting systems: the fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) and Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR). Extratropical forcing’s spatial structure is also produced skillfully in the two modelling systems; however, the representation of its interannual variability and teleconnection requires improvement. While SEAS5 displays skill in representing extratropical forcing influence on CSWA winter precipitation and marginal skill in reproducing interannual variability, SPEAR has negligible ability in both areas. Consequently, these models have limited predictive skills over CSWA in winter. While improvements in representing extratropical forcing may be inherently limited as it arises from internal atmospheric variability, further research is needed to establish its predictability limits fully.
Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES). Scientific User Facilities (SUF)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725
OSTI ID:
2333836
Journal Information:
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Name: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 7; ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher:
Springer NatureCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (52)

Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters: Scaife et al.: Predictability of the NAO journal April 2014
Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?: Seasonal to decadal predictability journal August 2014
Western Disturbances: A review: WESTERN DISTURBANCE: A REVIEW journal May 2015
Regional climate model simulation of winter climate over Central-Southwest Asia, with emphasis on NAO and ENSO effects journal January 2009
Interannual variability of rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula using the IPCC AR4 Global Climate Models journal September 2012
Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the Arab region: long-term trends and variability related to ENSO and NAO journal May 2013
Mechanism of winter precipitation variations in the southern arid Central Asia journal December 2021
Evaluation of the forecast skill of North American Multi‐Model Ensemble for monthly and seasonal precipitation forecasts over Iran journal November 2022
Statistical correction of central Southwest Asia winter precipitation simulations journal October 2003
The evolution, seasonality and impacts of western disturbances: On Western Disturbances
  • Hunt, Kieran M. R.; Turner, Andrew G.; Shaffrey, Len C.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 144, Issue 710 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3200
journal January 2018
The ERA5 global reanalysis journal June 2020
Tropical influence on Euro-Asian autumn rainfall variability journal March 2005
Skill and predictability in multimodel ensemble forecasts for Northern Hemisphere regions with dominant winter precipitation journal July 2016
Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models journal November 2016
Impact of ENSO longitudinal position on teleconnections to the NAO journal February 2018
Long-term ENSO relationship to precipitation and storm frequency over western Himalaya–Karakoram–Hindukush region during the winter season journal June 2019
Dominant modes of winter precipitation variability over Central Southwest Asia and inter-decadal change in the ENSO teleconnection journal July 2019
Potential predictability of boreal winter precipitation over central-southwest Asia in the North American multi-model ensemble journal October 2019
Impacts of mid-latitude circulation on winter temperature variability in the Arabian Peninsula: the explicit role of NAO journal May 2022
Moisture sources for precipitation variability over the Arabian Peninsula journal May 2023
Effect of remote forcings on the winter precipitation of central southwest Asia part 1: observations journal July 2006
Identification of droughts over Saudi Arabia and global teleconnections journal March 2022
Extreme precipitation events over Saudi Arabia during the wet season and their associated teleconnections journal January 2020
Skill assessment of Saudi-KAU and C3S models in prediction of spring season rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula journal December 2022
Intraseasonal variability of winter precipitation over central asia and the western tibetan plateau from 1979 to 2013 and its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation journal September 2017
SPEAR: The Next Generation GFDL Modeling System for Seasonal to Multidecadal Prediction and Projection journal March 2020
Tropical Indian Ocean Mediates ENSO Influence Over Central Southwest Asia During the Wet Season journal September 2020
Seasonal Predictability of the East Atlantic Pattern in Late Autumn and Early Winter journal January 2023
Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset journal April 2020
A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate journal March 2017
A signal-to-noise paradox in climate science journal July 2018
Dominant controls of cold-season precipitation variability over the high mountains of Asia journal August 2022
Predictability of Indian Ocean precipitation and its North Atlantic teleconnections during early winter journal March 2023
Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty journal September 2021
Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems journal June 2020
Drought in Central and Southwest Asia: La Niña, the Warm Pool, and Indian Ocean Precipitation journal April 2002
Present-Day Capabilities of Numerical and Statistical Models for Atmospheric Extratropical Seasonal Simulation and Prediction journal July 1999
Classification, Seasonality and Persistence of Low-Frequency Atmospheric Circulation Patterns journal June 1987
Evaporation–Precipitation Variability over the Mediterranean and the Black Seas from Satellite and Reanalysis Estimates journal October 2010
Recognizing the Famine Early Warning Systems Network: Over 30 Years of Drought Early Warning Science Advances and Partnerships Promoting Global Food Security journal June 2019
The Leading Pattern of Intraseasonal and Interannual Indian Ocean Precipitation Variability and Its Relationship with Asian Circulation during the Boreal Cold Season journal November 2012
A Review of Drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia journal December 2016
Multidecadal Changes in the Relationship between ENSO and Wet-Season Precipitation in the Arabian Peninsula journal June 2015
The Forcing of Monthly Precipitation Variability over Southwest Asia during the Boreal Cold Season journal September 2015
The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) journal July 2017
Seasonal Prediction of Winter Precipitation Anomalies over Central Southwest Asia: A Canonical Correlation Analysis Approach journal January 2018
Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part I: Weather Types and Their Tropical and Extratropical Drivers journal September 2018
Dynamics of the ENSO Teleconnection and NAO Variability in the North Atlantic–European Late Winter journal February 2020
The Role of an Indian Ocean Heating Dipole in the ENSO Teleconnection to the North Atlantic European Region in Early Winter during the Twentieth Century in Reanalysis and CMIP5 Simulations journal February 2021
The Physical Processes Dominating the Impact of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau Summer Rainfall journal December 2022
A Gauge-Based Analysis of Daily Precipitation over East Asia journal June 2007
SEAS5: the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system journal January 2019

Similar Records

Tropical Indian Ocean Mediates ENSO Influence Over Central Southwest Asia During the Wet Season
Journal Article · Sun Sep 13 20:00:00 EDT 2020 · Geophysical Research Letters · OSTI ID:1664622
Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble
Journal Article · Wed Apr 11 20:00:00 EDT 2018 · Climate Dynamics · OSTI ID:1623607

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES